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This site provides monthly summaries of simulation output as a supplement to the EPA draft report "Watershed modeling to assess the sensitivity of streamflow, nutrient, and sediment loads to potential climate change and urban development in 20 U.S. watersheds" (EPA/600/R-12/058a). The report, including a detailed description of the methods, models, and scenarios used in these simulations is available here..

The purpose of these simulations is to assess the sensitivity of streamflow and water quality to a range of plausible mid-21st century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Watershed simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-2005) model. All models are calibrated, but because of the large spatial scale of this study a number of simplifying assumptions were made for efficiency. Simulations are not probabilistic forecasts. Persons interested in using these simulations should refer to the EPA draft report and appendices cited above for a detailed description of modeling assumptions and limitations. Results are most robust when expressed as future changes relative to the historical baseline conditions.